This is the most important part of your paper in some respects.
Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity — technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.
For complete details, see below. Until I return to a further explanation, however, do read the first sentence of this paragraph carefully. Now back to the future: Our forebears expected the future to be pretty much like their present, which had been pretty much like their past.
Although exponential trends did exist a thousand years ago, they were at that very early stage where an exponential trend is so flat that it looks like no trend at all.
So their lack of expectations was largely fulfilled.
Website overview: Since the Study Guides and Strategies Website has been researched, authored, maintained and supported as an international, learner-centric, educational public service. Permission is granted to freely copy, adapt, and distribute individual Study Guides in print format in non-commercial educational settings that benefit learners. Explore monstermanfilm.com's library of categories, topics, software and learning paths. Why Instructional Design & Technology at WIU? Western Illinois University's Department of Instructional Design Technology (IDT) provides students with the knowledge, skills and ideas that will prepare them to use these tools of technology in create new ways to inform and train others.
Today, in accordance with the common wisdom, everyone expects continuous technological progress and the social repercussions that follow. But the future will be far more surprising than most observers realize: Bill and I have been frequently paired in a variety of venues as pessimist and optimist respectively.
When people think of a future period, they intuitively assume that the current rate of progress will continue for future periods.
However, careful consideration of the pace of technology shows that the rate of progress is not constant, but it is human nature to adapt to the changing pace, so the intuitive view is that the pace will continue at the current rate.
Even for those of us who have been around long enough to experience how the pace increases over time, our unexamined intuition nonetheless provides the impression that progress changes at the rate that we have experienced recently. So even though the rate of progress in the very recent past e.
It is typical, therefore, that even sophisticated commentators, when considering the future, extrapolate the current pace of change over the next 10 years or years to determine their expectations. But a serious assessment of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential.
In exponential growth, we find that a key measurement such as computational power is multiplied by a constant factor for each unit of time e.
Exponential growth is a feature of any evolutionary process, of which technology is a primary example. One can examine the data in different ways, on different time scales, and for a wide variety of technologies ranging from electronic to biological, and the acceleration of progress and growth applies.
What it clearly shows is that technology, particularly the pace of technological change, advances at least exponentially, not linearly, and has been doing so since the advent of technology, indeed since the advent of evolution on Earth.
I emphasize this point because it is the most important failure that would-be prognosticators make in considering future trends. That is why people tend to overestimate what can be achieved in the short term because we tend to leave out necessary detailsbut underestimate what can be achieved in the long term because the exponential growth is ignored.
The Law of Accelerating Returns We can organize these observations into what I call the law of accelerating returns as follows: Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage. As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time.
In another positive feedback loop, as a particular evolutionary process e. This results in a second level of exponential growth i.You will get $40 trillion just by reading this essay and understanding what it says.
For complete details, see below. (It’s true that authors will do just about anything to . Designing an Oral History Project: Initial Questions to Ask Yourself by Doug Boyd. It is a great feeling when you commit yourself, your organization or your community to an oral history project. Every morning I pick up a small black remote, push a button and quietly say, “Alexa, turn on Mary’s Desk.” In the distance, I hear “Ok” and my desk lights come on.
Website overview: Since the Study Guides and Strategies Website has been researched, authored, maintained and supported as an international, learner-centric, educational public service. Permission is granted to freely copy, adapt, and distribute individual Study Guides in print format in non-commercial educational settings that benefit learners.
The 18th Century proudly referred to itself as the "Age of Enlightenment" and rightfully so, for Europe had dwelled in the dim glow of the Middle Ages when suddenly the lights began to come on in men's minds and humankind moved forward.
Designing an Oral History Project: Initial Questions to Ask Yourself by Doug Boyd. It is a great feeling when you commit yourself, your organization or your community to an oral history project.